New Delhi, Jan 6
The scales are tilting in favour of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) with opinion polls now predicting a landslide victory in the upcoming Bangladesh elections, scheduled for February 12.
Last month, the polls suggested a close fight between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. However, the BNP has surged past the Jamaat with 70 per cent of the people, saying they would vote for the party headed by the late Khaleda Zia.
The Jamaat only has 19 per cent of the people's support, and this is a clear indicator that the margins are huge.
The newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP) has the support of 2.9 per cent of the population, according to an opinion poll conducted by the Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD).
Poll observers said that multiple factors have worked in favour of the BNP. The BNP is riding on the sympathy wave of the people due to the death of their leader, Khaleda Zia.
Furthermore, the return of her son, Tarique Rahman, has bolstered the party cadres who are now full-time on the field working hard for their party.
More importantly, the people of Bangladesh seem to be rejecting the Jamaat owing to the never-ending violence that has engulfed the nation.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that the people are aware that if a Jamaat is in power, it would never be an independent country, as the ISI would be completely in control.
Furthermore, the ordinary Bangladeshi seeks prosperity, not a country driven by religion. The last thing that they want is an Iran-style country, and the people realise that if an ISI-backed Jamaat is in power, then they would sign up for just that, the official noted.
The opinion poll also noted that many of Sheikh Hasina's supporters have abandoned the Awami League and are now backing the BNP.
The Awami League has been banned from contesting the elections, and this is a factor that may have contributed to the shift, the experts said.
According to the survey, 60 per cent of the Awami League supporters now say that they would vote for the BNP. Twenty-five per cent of the Awami League supporters said that they would side with the Jamaat.
The poll said that the Jatiya Party enjoys the support of just 1.4 per cent.
According to the poll, the BNP is very popular among women, and 71 per cent of them say that they will vote for the party. The BNP continues to dominate in Rajshahi and Chattogram, and is expected to get 70 per cent of the votes here.
The survey, conducted between December 20 and January 1, also stated that 77 per cent of the people are confident that the BNP would come to power.
According to officials, the point to be taken into consideration was that the Jamaat is rapidly losing grip on the country.
The politics of religion and the blind backing of the ISI have not gone in its favour. When its student wing, the Islamic Chhatra Shibir, swept the university elections, many felt that the result would be the same in the national polls as well.
However, the manner in which the events have unfolded only suggests that the Jamaat has made a mess out of the country.
Another official said that the Jamaat fell into the ISI trap and, by following its script, Bangladesh turned out to be a mess.
The official also added that a majority of Bangladeshis want a peaceful nation governed by the Constitution, and not Sharia Law.
India would hope for a BNP government in the neighbouring country. Following the death of Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi penned a heartfelt note that was delivered to Rahman by External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar.
New Delhi has been in talks with many within the BNP leadership, and if this party comes to power, there would be a working relationship between the two countries, experts added.
Intelligence Bureau officials said that the BNP being so far ahead is a good sign. However, they also warn that the violence could escalate, and the Jamaat and ISI combination would want the polls to be postponed.
Both are trying to create an atmosphere of fear and chaos, so that the postponement of the elections could be justified under the pretext that the atmosphere is not conducive, officials said.
In the past 18 days, there has been mindless violence that led to the targeted killings of 6 Hindus. In the last 24 hours, two Hindu men were murdered by radical elements. Intelligence agencies warn that such incidents could only increase, and the violence would escalate ahead of the elections.
The borders would need to be on high alert as there is every chance that the ISI would try to ensure that the madness spills over into India, an Intelligence Bureau official said.
